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Module 5: Probabilistic & Reinforcement Methods

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Define how Bayesian networks and Markov random fields are used to represent probability distributions, and briefly describe the trade-offs involved in choosing one versus the other.

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Bayesian Networks (BN) vs Markov Random Fields (MRF):

Both are Probabilistic Graphical Models representing joint distribution p(x1..xn)p(x_1..x_n) via graph factorization.

Bayesian Networks — Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG):

  • Nodes = random variables, directed edges = direct dependencies (parent → child = causal).
  • Factorization: p(x)=∏ip(xi∣Pa(xi))p(x)=\prod_{i} p(x_i | Pa(x_i)) (chain rule with conditional independence via d-separation).
  • Need Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) for discrete nodes.
  • Represents causal / asymmetric dependencies, natural for generative processes (e.g., disease → symptom).
  • Inference: exact (variable elimination, junction tree) NP-hard; approx MCMC.
  • Learning: DAG structure learning NP-hard, parameter learning via MLE.

Markov Random Fields — Undirected Graph:

  • Nodes linked by undirected edges, factorization over cliques via potentials ψC(xC)\psi_C(x_C): p(x)=1Z∏CψC(xC)p(x)=\frac1Z \prod_{C} \psi_C(x_C) where Z=∑x∏CψCZ=\sum_x \prod_C \psi_C (partition function, global normalization).
  • Represents symmetric / non-causal correlations, spatial interactions (e.g., pixels in image — neighboring pixels similar, Ising model).
  • Conditional independence via graph separation.
  • No CPTs, more flexible for cyclic dependencies.

Trade-offs:

Aspect BN MRF
Edge meaning Causal, directed Correlation, undirected
Normalization Local (each CPT sums to 1) Global ZZ — expensive
Cycles Cannot handle directed cycles Handles cycles naturally
Interpretability High (causal) Lower
Learning complexity Structure NP-hard but local norm easy Potential learning hard, ZZ intractable
Inference Slightly cheaper if DAG sparse Often costlier due to ZZ
Use cases Diagnosis, causal reasoning, time series (DBN) Image segmentation, stereo, spatial stats

Choosing: Use BN when direction/causality known, need generative sampling, DAG natural. Use MRF when dependencies symmetric, lattice-like, or cyclic correlations (images, social networks). Many distributions can be represented by either with transformations (moralization), but efficiency differs.

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